Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
$394.62
72¢ → 53¢
-26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
385h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StonktraderCTR | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $793.73 | $1.4K | +$644.43 | 74% 168-59 (227) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 74¢ | $636.76 | $460.36 | -$176.4 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 70¢ | $200 | $152.86 | -$48.57 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 66.6¢ | $81.21 | $64.21 | -$17 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $61.06 | $53.22 | -$7.84 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
Invested
$793.73
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$644.43
Record
74%
168-59 (227)
Invested
$636.76
Value
$460.36
PnL
-$176.4
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$200
Value
$152.86
PnL
-$48.57
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
2B9S<$100Invested
$81.21
Value
$64.21
PnL
-$17
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$61.06
Value
$53.22
PnL
-$7.84
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.