Consensus PnL $77K · win rate 79% (178–48, n=226) · PM monthly #345 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.1K
Record
178W / 48L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 226 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#467
Source
PM monthly #345
Trades
104
Markets
260
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $22K · now 23¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Yes $2.4K · now 80¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?No $2.3K · now 86¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Yes $2.3K · now 67¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?Yes $1.4K · now 47¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?Yes $846 · now 35¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
171 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 86¢- Mentions
+38 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +11%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +15%
- Tech
+4 pts
side won 97% of 37 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 38% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 100% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 99% of 145)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.