Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.4K
$195.74
53.5¢ → 63¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $490.27 | $553.28 | +$110.72 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
FI firegold | Yesavg 61¢ | $422.46 | $436.31 | +$6.93 | 59% 323-224 (547) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $186.03 | $242.33 | +$56.29 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $73.84 | $93.22 | +$19.38 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.6¢ | $34.22 | $36.63 | +$2.42 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$490.27
Value
$553.28
PnL
+$110.72
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$422.46
Value
$436.31
PnL
+$6.93
Record
59%
323-224 (547)
Invested
$186.03
Value
$242.33
PnL
+$56.29
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$73.84
Value
$93.22
PnL
+$19.38
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$34.22
Value
$36.63
PnL
+$2.42
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.