Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Boston Bruins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $588 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$588.37
$203.61
1.6¢ → 2.5¢
+53% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
671h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $174.65 | $347.24 | +$172.95 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $177.51 | $177.51 | +$0.01 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
RO royalestakeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $25.33 | $52.77 | +$27.44 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.31 | $5.78 | +$3.47 | 60% 798-532 (1330) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $5.33 | $5.06 | -$0.27 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$174.65
Value
$347.24
PnL
+$172.95
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$177.51
Value
$177.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$25.33
Value
$52.77
PnL
+$27.44
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$2.31
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$3.47
Record
60%
798-532 (1330)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$0.27
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.