Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.0K
$136.16
10.4¢ → 11.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
710h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $360.29 | $345.27 | -$14.99 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $280.4 | $312.98 | +$32.58 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $225.41 | $268.5 | +$43.1 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $1.38 | $49.67 | +$37.33 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $11.32 | $49.45 | +$38.13 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
Invested
$360.29
Value
$345.27
PnL
-$14.99
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$280.4
Value
$312.98
PnL
+$32.58
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$225.41
Value
$268.5
PnL
+$43.1
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$49.67
PnL
+$37.33
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$11.32
Value
$49.45
PnL
+$38.13
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.