Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 51¢ · $677 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$676.86
$50.03
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 46¢ | $28.11 | $390.22 | -$54.14 | 33% 537-1072 (1609) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Noavg 43.1¢ | $385.11 | $87.93 | +$23.34 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
 JustADonkCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.5¢ | $47.61 | $72.61 | +$25 | 55% 913-754 (1667) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Noavg 21.6¢ | $75.52 | $72.09 | +$46.57 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $44.66 | $53.92 | +$9.26 | 36% 198-345 (543) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$28.11
Value
$390.22
PnL
-$54.14
Record
33%
537-1072 (1609)
Invested
$385.11
Value
$87.93
PnL
+$23.34
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
JustADonkCTR<$100Invested
$47.61
Value
$72.61
PnL
+$25
Record
55%
913-754 (1667)
Invested
$75.52
Value
$72.09
PnL
+$46.57
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
Invested
$44.66
Value
$53.92
PnL
+$9.26
Record
36%
198-345 (543)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.