Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 84¢ · $277 held

Yes84¢No16¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$276.79

Combined PnL

$17.31

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 84¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$152.03

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$9.85

No2 traders

Total Value$24.76

Total Shares103

Combined PnL+$7.46

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

187h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Yesavg 77¢	$108.73	$120.67	+$11.95	66% 940-495 (1435)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$101	$100	-$1	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73¢	$73	$76	+$3
└ No leg	Noavg 28¢	$28	$24	-$4
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$45.29	$31.36	-$2.1	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$68.87	$23.54	+$7.31	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.06	$1.22	+$0.15	52% 5948-5557 (11505)

ndb1

Yes

Invested

$108.73

Value

$120.67

PnL

+$11.95

Record

66%

940-495 (1435)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$101

Value

$100

PnL

-$1

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.29

Value

$31.36

PnL

-$2.1

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$68.87

Value

$23.54

PnL

+$7.31

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

187h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.