Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$4.7K
$36.52
79.1¢ → 81¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
224h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$102.12 | 71% 60-24 (84) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Yesavg 85¢ | $425 | $402.5 | -$22.5 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | No | $101.89 | $123.63 | -$39.85 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 79.9¢ | $97.64 | $94.97 | -$2.67 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $8.19 | $7.61 | -$0.59 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$3,922.91
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$102.12
Record
71%
60-24 (84)
BiDiFakePollsInvested
$425
Value
$402.5
PnL
-$22.5
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
Invested
$101.89
Value
$123.63
PnL
-$39.85
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$97.64
Value
$94.97
PnL
-$2.67
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$8.19
Value
$7.61
PnL
-$0.59
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.