Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 75% (59–20, n=79) · PM monthly #860 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$32.0K
Record
59W / 20L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 79 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#585
Source
PM monthly #860
Trades
419
Markets
97
Volume
$6.0M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 8 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $96K · now 68¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $51K · now 81¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (50% of 40)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $50K · now 73¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (61% of 41)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $44K · now 82¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $44K · now 68¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $18K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $15K · now 44¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?Yes $4.0K · now 81¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
79 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 78¢- Elections
+4 pts
side won 78% of 36 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 60% of 20 at an average 73¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 25% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 17% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 86% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 85% of 62)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.