Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.2K
$648.47
25.5¢ → 45.5¢
+79% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $835.79 | $1.4K | +$571.3 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 72.3¢ | $300.17 | $362.32 | -$140.03 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $110.41 | $229.11 | +$118.7 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $17.73 | $131.4 | +$92.47 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
10 101456<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $36.92 | $41.44 | +$6.03 | 53% 141-126 (267) |
Invested
$835.79
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$571.3
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$300.17
Value
$362.32
PnL
-$140.03
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
Invested
$110.41
Value
$229.11
PnL
+$118.7
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
Invested
$17.73
Value
$131.4
PnL
+$92.47
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
Invested
$36.92
Value
$41.44
PnL
+$6.03
Record
53%
141-126 (267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.