Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 63% (133–77, n=210) · PM monthly #432 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.0K
Record
133W / 77L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 210 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1029
Source
PM monthly #432
Trades
279
Markets
255
Volume
$249.5K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 6 on the consensus side (17%)- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?No $728 · now 93¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $441 · now 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes $111 · now 43¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Yes $62 · now 13¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Yes $60 · now 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?No $40 · now 55¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
136 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 43¢- Elections
+25 pts
side won 76% of 37 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 61% of 33 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +16%
- Tech
+17 pts
side won 62% of 13 · avg entry 45¢
ROI −4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 19% of 52)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 61% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 86% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 97% of 34)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.