Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$282.93

Smart Money Entry

18¢ → 21¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,883

Combined PnL+$308.03

No2 traders

Total Value$375.29

Total Shares461

Combined PnL-$25.1

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cookiejarCTR	Yesavg 17.9¢	$716.23	$985.48	+$290.58	69% 178-80 (258)
Istaroth	Noavg 85.6¢	$437.94	$304.95	-$26.26	18% 365-1640 (2005)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$123.09	$123.5	+$0.41	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$76.51	$93.55	+$17.03	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 75.3¢	$101.9	$70.34	+$1.16	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

cookiejarCTR

Yes

Invested

$716.23

Value

$985.48

PnL

+$290.58

Record

69%

178-80 (258)

Istaroth

Invested

$437.94

Value

$304.95

PnL

-$26.26

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.09

Value

$123.5

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.51

Value

$93.55

PnL

+$17.03

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$101.9

Value

$70.34

PnL

+$1.16

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.7%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$340.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

440.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.