Consensus PnL -$96K · win rate 71% (135–56, n=191) · PM monthly #980 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-95.9K
Record
135W / 56L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 191 settled
Batting Avg
58.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#704
Source
PM monthly #980 + pinned
Trades
4,830
Markets
299
Volume
$13.4M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 10 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $3.7K · now 45¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.5K · now 66¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?Yes $2.2K · now 24¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $1.3K · now 45¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?Yes $985 · now 22¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $458 · now 14¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes $240 · now 12¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Yes $21 · now 2¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
217 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 83¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 92% of 26 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 86% of 57 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 87% of 39 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 22% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 44% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 100% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 99% of 174)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.