Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 45¢ · $445 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$445.5
$113.66
33.2¢ → 44.5¢
+34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thanksforplayinCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $100.28 | $178.5 | +$78.22 | 54% 304-254 (558) |
DO DOLBAEB1CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $146.48 | $146.48 | -$0 | 38% 40-65 (105) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $74.12 | $105.85 | +$31.73 | 40% 22-33 (55) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $10 | $13.81 | +$3.81 | 58% 6030-4389 (10419) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $0.97 | $0.86 | -$0.1 | 43% 2779-3618 (6397) |
thanksforplayinCTRInvested
$100.28
Value
$178.5
PnL
+$78.22
Record
54%
304-254 (558)
Invested
$146.48
Value
$146.48
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
40-65 (105)
Invested
$74.12
Value
$105.85
PnL
+$31.73
Record
40%
22-33 (55)
Invested
$10
Value
$13.81
PnL
+$3.81
Record
58%
6030-4389 (10419)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
2779-3618 (6397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.