Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 55% (178–143, n=321) · PM monthly #338 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$63.9K
Record
178W / 143L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 321 settled
Batting Avg
52.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1513
Source
PM monthly #338
Record (90 d)
713/1492 · 48%
Trades
1,238
Markets
687
Volume
$836.7K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 26 on the consensus side (62%)- Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $3.4K · now 97¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $997 · now 96¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $866 · now 96¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Together win 9-11% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $708 · now 99¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Yes $639 · now 31¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No $474 · now 90¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $380 · now 99¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Yes $178 · now 45¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
253 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 41¢- Finance
+6 pts
side won 46% of 184 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +4%
- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 62% of 29 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +24%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 44% of 16 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 45%(won 10% of 115)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 50% of 38)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 68% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 97% of 63)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.