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D6
Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 47% (14–16, n=30) · was PM monthly #967 · holds 10 consensus positions
0xd61a46bb...79d9708bPolymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$24.2K
Record
14W / 16L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 30 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1926
Source
PM monthly #967
Trades
7
Markets
121
Volume
$526.1K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 10 on the consensus side (90%)- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 71¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (71% of 29)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Yes $3.1K · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (50% of 11)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $3.1K · now 72¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (53% of 68)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 79¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (58% of 76)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (76% of 37)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 79¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 33)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 73¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (70% of 45)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (79% of 121)
Specialties
30 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 59¢- Esports
+38 pts
side won 97% of 30 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 91% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 100% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.