Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$6.2K
$185.74
89.6¢ → 92.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
101h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 88.9¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$152.45 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 90.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$39.63 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $69.24 | $64.92 | -$4.33 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $29.28 | $27.45 | -$1.83 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $0.27 | $0.09 | -$0.18 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
SeutervoinenInvested
$3,779.66
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$152.45
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
mrworldwideInvested
$2,092.49
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$39.63
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$69.24
Value
$64.92
PnL
-$4.33
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$29.28
Value
$27.45
PnL
-$1.83
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.18
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.