Consensus PnL $220K · win rate 76% (795–251, n=1046) · PM monthly #397 · holds 41 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$220.1K
Record
795W / 251L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 1046 settled
Batting Avg
37.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#539
Source
PM monthly #397
Trades
1,466
Markets
1,447
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
41 in listed consensus markets · 32 of 41 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?Yes $15K · now 96¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 79¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $13K · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $12K · now 71¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $11K · now 78¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes $5.9K · now 86¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.5K · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (71% of 31)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $5.4K · now 35¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
Specialties
1,075 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 67¢- Elections
+9 pts
side won 77% of 786 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +9%
- Other Sports
+4 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 58% of 192 at an average 62¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 9% of 155)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 52% of 113)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 63% of 227)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 97% of 580)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.