Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.2K
$161.99
34¢ → 37¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
406h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwideCTR | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$65.59 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $268 | $370 | +$102 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 65.9¢ | $109.35 | $105.53 | -$3.86 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $27.84 | $26.96 | +$0 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $19.43 | $17.69 | -$1.74 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
mrworldwideCTRInvested
$1,644.07
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$65.59
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$268
Value
$370
PnL
+$102
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$109.35
Value
$105.53
PnL
-$3.86
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$27.84
Value
$26.96
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$17.69
PnL
-$1.74
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.