Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.8K
$95.96
88.1¢ → 89¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.43 | 61% 207-133 (340) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $86.4 | $250.18 | +$5.55 | 41% 943-1365 (2308) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $194.69 | $246.58 | +$51.89 | 48% 6236-6891 (13127) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $14.49 | $129.67 | +$36.51 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yes | $29.69 | $60.41 | -$11.42 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
Invested
$1,125.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.43
Record
61%
207-133 (340)
Invested
$86.4
Value
$250.18
PnL
+$5.55
Record
41%
943-1365 (2308)
Invested
$194.69
Value
$246.58
PnL
+$51.89
Record
48%
6236-6891 (13127)
Invested
$14.49
Value
$129.67
PnL
+$36.51
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$29.69
Value
$60.41
PnL
-$11.42
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.