Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 39% (315–493, n=808) · was PM monthly #18 · holds 55 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.7K
Record
315W / 493L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 808 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2393
Source
PM monthly #18
Record (90 d)
1873/3932 · 48%
Trades
1,214
Markets
13,297
Volume
$888.3K
Top consensus positions
55 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 55 on the consensus side (67%)- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $3.7K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $288 · now 35¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?No $250 · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $162 · now 100¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $104 · now 47¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 2?No $58 · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?No $52 · now 65¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?No $52 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (50% of 17)
Specialties
1,297 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 63¢- Esports
+12 pts
side won 79% of 19 · avg entry 67¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 83% of 29 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +8%
- Tennis
+10 pts
side won 83% of 12 · avg entry 73¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 58% of 206 at an average 60¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 2% of 445)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 56% of 25)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 72% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 99% of 788)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.