Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 57% (281–214, n=495) · PM monthly #489 · holds 159 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.8K
Record
281W / 214L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 495 settled
Batting Avg
64.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1380
Source
PM monthly #489
Record (90 d)
44/97 · 45%
Trades
1,141
Markets
804
Volume
$12.0M
Top consensus positions
159 in listed consensus markets · 88 of 159 on the consensus side (55%)- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?Yes $12K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes $6.9K · now 99¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Yes $5.5K · now 65¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?No $5.5K · now 93¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?No $3.7K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?No $3.6K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes $2.9K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?No $2.8K · now 57¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
400 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 54¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 76% of 37 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+2 pts
side won 64% of 14 · avg entry 62¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 29% of 187 at an average 33¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 4% of 159)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 29% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 75% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 94% of 193)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.