Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 15¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.8K
-$69.16
15.6¢ → 15¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
624h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$31.59 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $205.3 | $179.62 | -$25.68 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $68.4 | $58.5 | -$9.9 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $30 | -$2 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $3.03 | $3.03 | +$0 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$1,531.61
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$31.59
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$205.3
Value
$179.62
PnL
-$25.68
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$68.4
Value
$58.5
PnL
-$9.9
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$32
Value
$30
PnL
-$2
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.