Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 20¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.6K
$453.41
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
657h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $1.6K | $2.0K | +$424.47 | 40% 704-1065 (1769) |
AN anciano | No | $317.55 | $317.55 | -$2.77 | 52% 1161-1067 (2228) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 79¢ | $130.35 | $132 | +$1.65 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Yes | $69.57 | $69.57 | +$30.06 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $36.84 | $36.84 | +$0 | 37% 1395-2381 (3776) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$1,575.58
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$424.47
Record
40%
704-1065 (1769)
Invested
$317.55
Value
$317.55
PnL
-$2.77
Record
52%
1161-1067 (2228)
Invested
$130.35
Value
$132
PnL
+$1.65
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$69.57
Value
$69.57
PnL
+$30.06
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$36.84
Value
$36.84
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1395-2381 (3776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.