Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.6K
-$76.8
93.3¢ → 97.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 93.6¢ | $898.1 | $938.75 | +$41.13 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
WA wan123 | Yesavg 93¢ | $656.88 | $641.12 | +$30.22 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $38.07 | $39.48 | +$1.41 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | No | $279.53 | $17.28 | -$148.97 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $1.05 | $0.46 | -$0.59 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
SeutervoinenInvested
$898.1
Value
$938.75
PnL
+$41.13
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
Invested
$656.88
Value
$641.12
PnL
+$30.22
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$38.07
Value
$39.48
PnL
+$1.41
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Invested
$279.53
Value
$17.28
PnL
-$148.97
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$0.59
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.