Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.8K
$50.08
84.3¢ → 89¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
659h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 88.8¢ | $556.07 | $849.95 | -$3.83 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 77¢ | $410 | $473.9 | +$61.23 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
PA pantomimeCTR | Noavg 11.5¢ | $371.4 | $355.9 | -$15.5 | 52% 1287-1198 (2485) |
 ChungvicularCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $74.31 | $74.31 | +$3.38 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
11 11122<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $13 | $17.8 | +$4.8 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
Invested
$556.07
Value
$849.95
PnL
-$3.83
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Ryxon21Invested
$410
Value
$473.9
PnL
+$61.23
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
Invested
$371.4
Value
$355.9
PnL
-$15.5
Record
52%
1287-1198 (2485)
ChungvicularCTR<$100Invested
$74.31
Value
$74.31
PnL
+$3.38
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Invested
$13
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$4.8
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.