Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 51% (36–34, n=70) · was PM monthly #985 · holds 43 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.1K
Record
36W / 34L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 70 settled
Batting Avg
57.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1717
Source
PM monthly #985 + pinned
Trades
5,341
Markets
205
Volume
$455.4K
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 43 on the consensus side (53%)- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $11K · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $6.5K · now 44¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?No $6.2K · now 35¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes $6.0K · now 36¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $3.7K · now 52¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes $3.5K · now 44¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 24¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $3.1K · now 70¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
Specialties
111 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 32¢- Elections
+8 pts
side won 36% of 56 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+12 pts
side won 33% of 12 · avg entry 22¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 15% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 45% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 84% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 93% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.