Consensus PnL $133K · win rate 71% (148–60, n=208) · PM monthly #461 · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$132.7K
Record
148W / 60L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 208 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#704
Source
PM monthly #461 + pinned
Trades
12,073
Markets
526
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 53 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $37K · now 100¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $29K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $25K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $21K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $11K · now 91¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $6.7K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $6.5K · now 78¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $5.3K · now 79¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
Specialties
297 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 77¢- F1
+39 pts
side won 94% of 17 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+14 pts
side won 89% of 188 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +14%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 98% of 47 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 46% of 24)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 78% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 95% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 97% of 220)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.