Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$6.8K
$1.7K
40.1¢ → 55.5¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
515h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO Loyalty-Crash | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $3.9K | $5.3K | +$1.4K | 62% 45-28 (73) |
 mombil | Yesavg 43¢ | $591.79 | $766.53 | +$174.73 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Yesavg 38¢ | $380 | $555 | +$175 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Noavg 61¢ | $78.2 | $183.5 | -$66.23 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $7.08 | $9.47 | +$2.38 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
Invested
$3,859.75
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
mombilInvested
$591.79
Value
$766.53
PnL
+$174.73
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
BiDiFakePollsInvested
$380
Value
$555
PnL
+$175
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
Invested
$78.2
Value
$183.5
PnL
-$66.23
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$9.47
PnL
+$2.38
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.