Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$10.4K
$2.7K
37.7¢ → 50.5¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
480h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $5.2K | $7.7K | +$2.5K | 61% 203-132 (335) |
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.88 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
CO cocococococo | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $702.79 | $720.09 | +$24.5 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 BigRabbit | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $167.92 | $254.87 | +$89.49 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $68.9 | $109.3 | +$40.39 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
Invested
$5,242.41
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$1,617.22
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.88
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$702.79
Value
$720.09
PnL
+$24.5
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
BigRabbitInvested
$167.92
Value
$254.87
PnL
+$89.49
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$68.9
Value
$109.3
PnL
+$40.39
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.