Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.0K
$15.05
83.1¢ → 85.3¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
72h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 86.1¢ | $400.8 | $400 | -$0.16 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $352.77 | $356.25 | +$3.48 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 79.7¢ | $132.45 | $144.86 | +$12.41 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 79¢ | $40.29 | $130.01 | +$6.22 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $19 | $11.1 | -$6.9 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
IstarothInvested
$400.8
Value
$400
PnL
-$0.16
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$352.77
Value
$356.25
PnL
+$3.48
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
Invested
$132.45
Value
$144.86
PnL
+$12.41
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$40.29
Value
$130.01
PnL
+$6.22
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$19
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$6.9
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.