Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.0K
$399.8
62.2¢ → 73¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
497h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 67.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$162.15 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $572.16 | $830.28 | +$258.12 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
BA badatthisCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $39.6 | $32.4 | -$7.2 | 65% 2235-1184 (3419) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $3.68 | $30.13 | +$10.76 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $45.31 | $28.08 | -$24.03 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
Invested
$1,882.47
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$162.15
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$572.16
Value
$830.28
PnL
+$258.12
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$32.4
PnL
-$7.2
Record
65%
2235-1184 (3419)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$30.13
PnL
+$10.76
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$45.31
Value
$28.08
PnL
-$24.03
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.