Consensus PnL $79K · win rate 63% (1520–885, n=2405) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$78.7K
Record
1520W / 885L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 2405 settled
Batting Avg
68.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1006
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
80,399
Markets
3,911
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 9 on the consensus side (22%)- Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Yes $192 · now 64¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $121 · now 4¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Yes $83 · now 28¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Yes $36 · now 35¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?No $32 · now 27¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes $30 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes $19 · now 7¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes $9 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,392 settled consensus markets · held side won 30% at an average entry of 27¢- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 39% of 1305 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +1%
- Tech
+3 pts
side won 10% of 42 · avg entry 7¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 28% of 241 · avg entry 26¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 8% of 25 at an average 9¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 63%(won 11% of 1503)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 44% of 441)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 67% of 219)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 90% of 229)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.