Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 90¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$4.8K
$387.58
84.8¢ → 90¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
635h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 88.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$150.28 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
WA wan123 | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$180.51 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
LI lineth | Yesavg 73¢ | $140.16 | $172.8 | +$32.64 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
DE dedidanc | Yesavg 70.7¢ | $88.35 | $112.49 | +$24.14 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 SirHarryOakes<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $1.23 | $1.24 | +$0.01 | 84% 215-41 (256) |
SeutervoinenInvested
$2,947.64
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$150.28
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
Invested
$1,362.25
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$180.51
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$140.16
Value
$172.8
PnL
+$32.64
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$88.35
Value
$112.49
PnL
+$24.14
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
SirHarryOakes<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0.01
Record
84%
215-41 (256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.