Consensus PnL $47K · win rate 86% (173–29, n=202) · hand-picked wallet · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$47.1K
Record
173W / 29L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 202 settled
Batting Avg
66.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#316
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,486
Markets
308
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 17 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $15K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (57% of 23)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $14K · now 94¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes $10K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No $8.7K · now 92¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (52% of 31)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $8.4K · now 82¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $6.8K · now 92¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $6.5K · now 87¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
261 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 90¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 95% of 93 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +7%
- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+6 pts
side won 94% of 18 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 85% of 34 at an average 88¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 33% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 95% of 252)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.