Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$124.51
-$675.53
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 96.6¢ | $96.73 | $100.08 | +$3.35 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.99 | +$0.11 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $467.12 | $3.04 | -$464.09 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.91 | $0.91 | -$138.86 | 52% 5045-4715 (9760) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.5 | $0.5 | -$76.05 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$96.73
Value
$100.08
PnL
+$3.35
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$467.12
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$464.09
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$138.86
Record
52%
5045-4715 (9760)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$76.05
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.