Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 92¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$5.6K
$37.36
90.6¢ → 92¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
192h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 90.6¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$53.41 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $44.49 | $95.55 | -$8.26 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $61.62 | $63.48 | +$1.86 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $59.71 | $45.53 | -$11.33 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $5.03 | $6.71 | +$1.68 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$5,310.47
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$53.41
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Invested
$44.49
Value
$95.55
PnL
-$8.26
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
probability<$100Invested
$61.62
Value
$63.48
PnL
+$1.86
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$59.71
Value
$45.53
PnL
-$11.33
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$1.68
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.