Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$10.3K
$399.47
94.2¢ → 98¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 94.4¢ | $4.4K | $6.5K | +$238.4 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
 probability | Noavg 94.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$97.69 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$61.33 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
 -Dominus- | Noavg 96.7¢ | $140.03 | $141.84 | +$1.81 | 69% 349-157 (506) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $11.57 | $11.82 | +$0.25 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$4,439.88
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$238.4
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
probabilityInvested
$2,478.64
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$97.69
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
SeutervoinenInvested
$1,040.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$61.33
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
-Dominus-Invested
$140.03
Value
$141.84
PnL
+$1.81
Record
69%
349-157 (506)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$11.82
PnL
+$0.25
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.