Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 70% (343–145, n=488) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.2K
Record
343W / 145L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 488 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#749
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
516
Markets
661
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $950 · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $710 · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $700 · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $690 · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?No $688 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No $584 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $424 · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $308 · now 42¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (48% of 46)
Specialties
484 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 65% of 198 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +11%
- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 87% of 38 · avg entry 75¢
ROI 0%
- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 91% of 74 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 55% of 11 at an average 58¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 16% of 82)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 46% of 61)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 69% of 59)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 98% of 282)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.