Will the Detroit Lions make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 61¢ · $333 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$333.23
$23.96
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $160.32 | $187.14 | -$8.57 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38¢ | $116.97 | $120.04 | -$32.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.9¢ | $55.99 | $67.09 | +$23.75 | |
AN anciano | Yes | $110.98 | $110.98 | +$24.56 | 52% 1173-1079 (2252) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $20.97 | $26.92 | +$2.24 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
 JustADonkCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.62 | $8.2 | -$2.84 | 55% 920-756 (1676) |
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$160.32
Value
$187.14
PnL
-$8.57
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.98
Value
$110.98
PnL
+$24.56
Record
52%
1173-1079 (2252)
Invested
$20.97
Value
$26.92
PnL
+$2.24
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
JustADonkCTR<$100Invested
$8.62
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$2.84
Record
55%
920-756 (1676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.