Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $221 held · ends Jan 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$221.35
-$201.04
1.4¢ → 0.8¢
-45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
710h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $217.5 | $132.62 | -$121 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $129.46 | $61.19 | -$68.22 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $37.28 | $26.25 | -$11.03 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.05 | $0.66 | -$0.39 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
FO forgetfuldoryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $1.04 | $0.64 | -$0.4 | — 5-5 (10) |
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$217.5
Value
$132.62
PnL
-$121
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$129.46
Value
$61.19
PnL
-$68.22
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$37.28
Value
$26.25
PnL
-$11.03
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$0.39
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$0.4
Record
—
5-5 (10)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.