Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 50% (5–5, n=10) · was PM monthly #993 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.7K
Record
5W / 5L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1791
Source
PM monthly #993
Trades
14
Markets
34
Volume
$79.1K
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 19 on the consensus side (53%)- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $20K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $9.2K · now 71¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (69% of 27)
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No $5.6K · now 73¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (25% of 13)
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?No $1.2K · now 28¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?No $291 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Yes $268 · now 70¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No $181 · now 72¢ · in at 80¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes $138 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
8 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 43¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where forgetfuldory's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.