Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $404 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$404.1
-$22.34
38¢ → 42.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HyperlongCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $171.36 | $173.4 | -$24.48 | 43% 235-315 (550) |
 20YrsOfBoredomCTR | Noavg 31.8¢ | $95.06 | $123.96 | +$12.17 | 39% 498-791 (1289) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 39.9¢ | $26.69 | $63.74 | -$8.37 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.2¢ | $42.6 | $42.99 | -$1.66 | 58% 18597-13721 (32318) |
HyperlongCTRInvested
$171.36
Value
$173.4
PnL
-$24.48
Record
43%
235-315 (550)
20YrsOfBoredomCTRInvested
$95.06
Value
$123.96
PnL
+$12.17
Record
39%
498-791 (1289)
Invested
$26.69
Value
$63.74
PnL
-$8.37
Record
50%
1695-1681 (3376)
Invested
$42.6
Value
$42.99
PnL
-$1.66
Record
58%
18597-13721 (32318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.