Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 40% (499–740, n=1239) · was PM monthly #893 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.0K
Record
499W / 740L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 1239 settled
Batting Avg
29.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2402
Source
PM monthly #893
Record (90 d)
37/110 · 34%
Trades
1,395
Markets
1,559
Volume
$234.8K
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Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?Yes $248 · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $142 · now 78¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $124 · now 36¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $110 · now 22¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $88 · now 47¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $59 · now 18¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will The Debut win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
879 settled consensus markets · held side won 36% at an average entry of 37¢- NFL
+7 pts
side won 26% of 19 · avg entry 20¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 73% of 48 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 28% of 415 at an average 29¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 5% of 459)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 36% of 85)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 62% of 94)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 84% of 241)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.