Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$368.37
21.2¢ → 48¢
+126% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
517h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $860.32 | $702.27 | -$30.46 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.4¢ | $466.42 | $365.17 | -$103.86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $264.15 | $337.1 | +$73.4 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $231.58 | $524.09 | +$298.61 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $59.42 | $96.36 | +$36.95 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $92.07 | $86.96 | -$0.85 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $43.86 | $77.52 | +$33.66 | — 7-2 (9) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$860.32
Value
$702.27
PnL
-$30.46
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.58
Value
$524.09
PnL
+$298.61
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$59.42
Value
$96.36
PnL
+$36.95
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$92.07
Value
$86.96
PnL
-$0.85
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Invested
$43.86
Value
$77.52
PnL
+$33.66
Record
—
7-2 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.