Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.4K
$484.51
69¢ → 85¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
619h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST Stonktrader | Noavg 69¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$475.43 | 74% 168-59 (227) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $57.73 | $52.59 | -$3.26 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
CL ClickKlackClick<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $25 | $30.19 | +$4.13 | 99% 174-1 (175) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $5.87 | $13.85 | +$7.99 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.96 | $1.19 | +$0.22 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
Invested
$1,938.22
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$475.43
Record
74%
168-59 (227)
Invested
$57.73
Value
$52.59
PnL
-$3.26
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$25
Value
$30.19
PnL
+$4.13
Record
99%
174-1 (175)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.87
Value
$13.85
PnL
+$7.99
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$1.19
PnL
+$0.22
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.