Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 60¢ · $601 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$600.87
$252.34
33.6¢ → 59.5¢
+77% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 30¢ | $0.97 | $489.05 | +$249.35 | 33% 537-1069 (1606) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $55 | $58.5 | +$3.5 | 56% 15522-12135 (27657) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $29.2 | $35.37 | +$6.18 | 44% 4039-5233 (9272) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $21.27 | $9.64 | -$6.39 | 30% 1407-3212 (4619) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $8.3 | -$0.3 | 16% 247-1262 (1509) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$0.97
Value
$489.05
PnL
+$249.35
Record
33%
537-1069 (1606)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$55
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
56%
15522-12135 (27657)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$35.37
PnL
+$6.18
Record
44%
4039-5233 (9272)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$9.64
PnL
-$6.39
Record
30%
1407-3212 (4619)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
16%
247-1262 (1509)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.