Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $24 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$24
-$88.33
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
4285h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
36 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $12.34 | $12.5 | +$0.16 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $4.96 | $5 | +$0.04 | 73% 41-15 (56) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.02 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.85 | $0.85 | -$49.65 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.65 | $0.65 | -$38.91 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
Invested
$12.34
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.16
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.04
Record
73%
41-15 (56)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$49.65
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$38.91
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.