Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.4¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.2K
$619.06
3¢ → 6.4¢
+112% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
710h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $276.18 | $527.01 | +$238.78 | 42% 1081-1477 (2558) |
RO roldyCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $164.04 | $298.48 | +$127.6 | 55% 1429-1185 (2614) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $76.69 | $264.36 | +$181.62 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $28.47 | $84.14 | +$55.67 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $10.75 | $26.14 | +$15.39 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
LiquidatedDegenCTRInvested
$276.18
Value
$527.01
PnL
+$238.78
Record
42%
1081-1477 (2558)
Invested
$164.04
Value
$298.48
PnL
+$127.6
Record
55%
1429-1185 (2614)
Invested
$76.69
Value
$264.36
PnL
+$181.62
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$28.47
Value
$84.14
PnL
+$55.67
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$26.14
PnL
+$15.39
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.