Consensus PnL $83K · win rate 43% (1049–1403, n=2452) · was PM monthly #939 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$82.9K
Record
1049W / 1403L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 2452 settled
Batting Avg
39.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2033
Source
PM monthly #939
Trades
4,616
Markets
3,419
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 29 on the consensus side (72%)- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $9.8K · now 14¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.5K · now 53¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $5.9K · now 73¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 68¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.0K · now 15¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $2.4K · now 34¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $2.2K · now 44¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 26¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,676 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 36¢- Soccer
+54 pts
side won 84% of 255 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +15%
- NHL
+51 pts
side won 93% of 190 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +47%
- MLB
+49 pts
side won 91% of 382 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +39%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 19% of 32 at an average 24¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 51% of 629)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 85% of 563)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 95% of 470)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 93% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.